The Truth About the Paris Agreement with Zak Kadletz

Welcome back, you glorious, masochistic nightmare fiends! And thus ends another ttkmeup Heavy Hitter series, as our very special guest Zak Kadletz joins us to make us sad about the only saving grace we thought we had: the Paris Agreement.

This post is going to be shorter for a couple reasons: One, I really want you to listen to Zak’s episode - he did a wonderful job and we’re so grateful he took the time to be on the show. Two, I am so tired and cannot fathom writing an entire breakdown of the Paris Agreement and the following Emissions Gap Report and Production Gap Report. There are a lot of numbers, people. So with your permission (or without it) I will be writing a bird’s eye view of the major issues and our reactions to what Mr. Kadletz presented. But for the real-deal experience? You’re gonna have to click that little purple Play Button.

What Is The Paris Agreement?

What a wonderful and convenient question. In a very simplified nutshell, it’s a 26-page document that outlines the dire need for greenhouse gas emission restrictions and how we, as a group of nations, should go about implementing those restrictions. Its goals are noble, of course, in that it aims to keep global warming to a 1.5-2 degree Celsius range. Any higher than this range, and the world would start to see a spike in species extinction, environmental destruction, polar ice caps melting, etc. etc. etc. Once we get there, we enter a kind of CO2 feedback loop where the death and destruction creates more carbon which creates more… you know what, you get it.

That Sounds Like a Good Thing

It is! In theory. Or, more accurately, it would be a legitimately good thing if the Agreement had anything in it that allowed for checks and balances. Since no one can really exact legal punishments on those who don’t follow the Paris Agreement, there really isn’t any system for accountability built in. What we get as a result are hundreds of countries who say they want to take steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but don’t do nearly enough (or anything) to actually live up to that promise.

By definition, then, the countries involved in the Paris Agreement set their own standards for keeping global warming down and then self-report their progress to the UN. Since there’s no meaningful accountability, countries are free to set whatever standards they like - even if they don’t adhere to the 1.5-2 degree projected range.

So… Did Anything Really Change?

You mean other than the multi-nation pinky promise? Sure.

In 2019 the UN Environment Programme published two reports, the Emissions Gap Report (EGR) and the Production Gap Report (PGR). These reports illustrate the world’s status in emissions and greenhouse gas production as compared to their goals and compared to what the world actually needs to stay in the ideal range I mentioned before.

The EGR reflects that, even if all members of the Paris Agreement meet their current self-imposed standards for reduction, we’re on track to raise the global temperature to 3.2 degrees Celsius. To keep the planet on track for the 1.5 degree goal, we would have to collectively drop our greenhouse gas emissions to no more than 25 gigatons by 2030 - but with the way things are going right now, we’re set to have our emissions at more than twice that. To reach the goal of 1.5 degrees by 2030, we would have to increase our current commitments five fold, and the current international response to this crisis is simply not good enough. You can read a breakdown of the findings here and the full report here.

It gets worse. The PGR reflects that the planned levels of fossil fuel production among countries that pledged their support of the Paris Agreement do not adhere to the 1.5-2 degree range. In fact, the planned fossil fuel output by 2030 is about 50% more than would be needed for a 2 degree increase and a withering 120% more than needed for a 1.5 degree increase. Despite government pledges, the biggest fossil fuel producers have continued to subsidize fossil fuel production thus widening the production gap even further than the emissions gap. As oil-producing countries realize that oil may become scarce in the future, they have begun drilling more oil to stockpile for future sale. And, on the other hand, as they realize that oil will become more expensive in the future, non-producing countries begin drilling for oil in their own territories. Basically, the production of fossil fuels has gotten worse than when the Paris Agreement was drafted. You can read a summary of the PGR here and the full report here.

And This is All For Money?

You’d think that, wouldn’t you?

But the really upsetting thing is that clean energy has proven time and again to be at least competitive with the price of manufacturing fossil fuels. The cost of purchasing a wind or solar farm is roughly on par with the cost of running an oil refinery. And after the farm is purchased, the energy is basically free. Subsidies are what make fossil fuels profitable for oil companies, so it’s basically just manufactured value.

Well That’s… Upsetting

Look, I don’t want to sugar coat it. It’s bad news. The way our governments have continued to handle the climate crisis is abysmal. A lot of the most powerful, wealthy folks would actual benefit from a climate crisis, as it manufactures a need for products and services to mitigate the effects of global warming. A lot of plants, animals, ecosystems, and homeless/impoverished people would die. It may not be the human extinction event the tabloids say, but it’s bad news.

But I also don’t want you to feel paralyzed by the reality we’re living in. Yeah, the numbers are grim. But that absolutely does not mean that it’s hopeless. First and foremost, VOTE. Your vote always matters, and it matters more than ever before. Don’t just vote for the presidency, vote for everything you can and do your research. Find out politicians’ track records. Vote for the people who see the big picture, or as close to it as possible. For a reasonably non-victim blamey piece on a citizen’s ability to affect climate change, read this BBC piece. There are also a ton of resources online.

Volunteer your time to work for nonprofits. Protest the atrocities you see around you. Donate money to those who are organized and can do more with it than you can. Eat less meat. Buy a used computer. Cancel your subscription to one of those sample boxes of clothes or makeup. Whatever you have the physical and mental and emotional capacity to do - do it. The small things you do to help our world will add up, and the planet is counting on us to try.

You are not responsible for climate change, and you will not be able to solve it on your own. But you are the ones who will keep the fight alive. They want us to get tired and stop. Don’t give them what they want.

P.S. Zak was kidding about the billionaire killing, pwease don’t murder us Mr. FBI Man.