COVID-19: The Timeline So Far, What We Know, and What We Can Do
The episode that no one was waiting for! Our minisode on the COVID-19 pandemic is not very mini, as you can see by our ~2 hour time stamp.
So what is COVID-19?
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-COVID-19) is a new strain of a relatively new human coronavirus. It is a positive single-stranded RNA virus. If you remember our episode on the 1918 Influenza Pandemic, influenza is also an RNA virus. However, influenza is a negative single-stranded RNA virus, which is crucial to distinguish because there is this running assumption that the current outbreak is "just the flu." They are very different. They have a different set of symptoms, a different reproduction cycle, and (depending on the strain) a significant difference in infectivity and mortality rate. In terms of characterizing coronavirus, that is quite challenging. Generally, coronavirus has been less studied compared to its more popular counterparts (HIV, influenza, etc.) because it has been found to mostly infect animals.
So then how has it, infected humans?
Well, the short answer to that is that we don't know. The first coronavirus outbreak was the 2002 SARS outbreak and infected around 8,000 people globally. Like the 2002 strain, COVID-19 originated from bats and most likely had an intermediate carrier species aid in the infections of humans. Phenomena like these are historically rare but do happen. In fact, currently, scientists are concerned the virus may "species jump" again to primates, whose populations are already vulnerable due to deforestation and hunting.
When did all of this start?
Ah, a simple question with the most complicated answer in the world (figuratively speaking). While Olivia goes over all the specifics in the episode, the general timeline is thus:
Early December: The first COVID-19 patients begin rolling into Wuhan hospitals exhibiting pneumonia-like symptoms.
Late December: Doctors begin to notice that there is an exponential increase in pneumonia-like symptoms.
December 31: The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission informed the World Health Organization (WHO) of an increase in pneumonia cases.
Late December through Mid-January: China's National Health Commission actively suppressed research on the outbreak and denied any instances of human to human transmission.
Mid to Late January: Millions of people from Wuhan had already carried the virus across the globe, and the rest is history.
It's important to note that Wuhan and China knew well in advance the severity and infectivity of the virus. In efforts to save face, the actively withheld information and silenced doctors that argued otherwise. By the time cases began popping up in other countries, it was far too late.
What do you mean "too late"?
Coronavirus is highly infectious. If you look at the coronavirus outbreak in South Korea, it is suspected that one patient (patient 31) is responsible for 60% of the COVID-19 cases in South Korea. This is mainly because people can be infectious without exhibiting symptoms. While the current estimate is that it takes 2-5 days to start showing symptoms once infected. Still, it has also been recently found that when studying the Diamond Princess cases, 46.5% of infected persons were asymptomatic. Consequently, the virus has been spreading very fast. At the time of recording (March 24th), there were about 59k cases of COVID-19 in the US. At the time of posting this article (March 27th), there are 85,724 cases. If you're feeling curious, here are two sources to track the spread from John Hopkins Coronavirus Research Center and the Worldometer Global Statistics. At this point, the course of the virus has been set on a path where we can't stop it but rather minimize it. In a leaked set of top-secret documents, the US government has estimated that this pandemic will last, in total, about 18 months and will consist of multiple waves.
Wait, waves?
Yes! China's response to the outbreak was to impose severe quarantine measures (and let an entire town die, but that's neither here nor there) which was mildly effective, but unsustainable. Now, the qualifier here is that these numbers are coming from the same country that notoriously obscures information, so take their "leveling of the curve" with a massive grain of salt. Whether we want to or not, people are going to get fatigued from being in quarantine. People are going to start leaving the house, going to work, and congregating. This is the period when the virus will be primed to shoot up.
Then what can we do?
We named some things on the show, but we will take a moment to summarize the key points.
Take this seriously. Underestimating the severity of the pandemic is the number one way to diminish the importance of quarantine measures. Don't drive yourself into a spiral over the numbers, but understand this isn't "just the flu."
Don't break quarantine if you don't need to. We all need groceries and other essentials, so obviously, we'll need to leave the house. However, do not take this as an opportunity to vacation or visit empty beaches. If you do not have to leave, don't! And if you do, exercise social distancing.
Wash your hands and sanitize surfaces. The current estimates are that the virus particles are airborne for up to 3 hours and remain on surfaces for several hours to several days. While there have been articles praising the antimicrobial properties of copper, COVID-19 particles are found to survive for 4 hours on copper. However, scientists found that the viral RNA survived for 17 days on the Diamond Princess after everyone disembarked. Sanitizing and washing your hands is critical.
Is everything going to be okay?
We're worried y'all. It would be dishonest to say this will be over in a few weeks or even a few months. Hospitals are already overwhelmed and overcapacity. Things are being done to support hospital staff and increase crucial supplies, but it's going to be a tough few months. Embrace social connectivity and try to avoid the spiral of despair. One percent of the global population is still 78 million people. All we can do is our best. Be good to each other, everyone.